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	<title>Comments on: Shortcut on the Roadmap to War</title>
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		<title>By: halali</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-63806</link>
		<dc:creator>halali</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2009 18:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-63806</guid>
		<description>At this point it seems fairly clear that Obama is clueless with respect to foreign policy. At best he is ambivalent. Given that his entire foreign policy team is right of center, it seems doubtful that we will avoid more war, Admiral Mullen not withstanding. AIPAC’s control of Congress remains as firm as ever, Obama fans the flames of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. His lawyers continue to successfully invoke the government’s “right” to state secrets against hapless and unwitting prisoners of war (a.k.a. “terrorists”). &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.azginarsiv.com&quot; title=&quot;sikiş&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;sikiş&lt;/a&gt; Probably in the end, Obama will regret his decisions and/or lack of them with respect to foreign policy and his inability to stand up to Israel. But by then it will be too late. I too hope that I am wrong. But I doubt it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point it seems fairly clear that Obama is clueless with respect to foreign policy. At best he is ambivalent. Given that his entire foreign policy team is right of center, it seems doubtful that we will avoid more war, Admiral Mullen not withstanding. AIPAC’s control of Congress remains as firm as ever, Obama fans the flames of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. His lawyers continue to successfully invoke the government’s “right” to state secrets against hapless and unwitting prisoners of war (a.k.a. “terrorists”). <a href="http://www.azginarsiv.com" title="sikiş" rel="nofollow">sikiş</a> Probably in the end, Obama will regret his decisions and/or lack of them with respect to foreign policy and his inability to stand up to Israel. But by then it will be too late. I too hope that I am wrong. But I doubt it.</p>
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		<title>By: Mohammad Taghi Moslehi</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52659</link>
		<dc:creator>Mohammad Taghi Moslehi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 20:11:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52659</guid>
		<description>I disagree with Mohammad Sahimi who is constantly supporting and denying what the IRI is up to and agree with Jon Harrison.  Khomaini himslef when sipped the chalice said that &quot;friendship with the U.S. is frienship of a sheep with a wolf&quot;  and he went on to recommend to the elements of the regime who would take his place after his death and made sure that after his death Iran would continue work on it nuclear weapons program.  He was under no illusions that Iran had effectively conceded defeat to Iraq, and was determined that, in any future conflict, Iran would have all the necessary weapons to achieve victory.  On 16 July 1988, just four days before Khomaini announced that he had agreed to accept UN security Resolution 598, which called for an immediate ceasefire to end the war with Iraq, he wrote a letter to Iran&#039;s military and political leaders.  The letter was a response to a &#039;shocking report&#039; he had received from Mohsen Rezai expressed utter despair at the course the was was taking.  Khomaini&#039;s letter argued that Iran should do everything to acquire the military capability to ensure that it did not find itself in the same humiliating position the next time the country went to war.  &quot;if we have  at hand the instruments which we will obtain over five years, it is possible for us to have the power to carry out destructive or reciprocal operations,&quot; Khomaini wrote.  &quot;If we have 350 infantry brigades, 2,500 tanks, 3,000 artillery units, 300 fighter jets, 300 helicopters and the ability to create noticeable quantities of laser and atomic weapons which are the requirements of war in this day and age, I can say that by God&#039;s will we could carry out an offensive operation.&quot;  This letter, the exact contents of which are published here for the first time, is the only known occasion when Khomaini personally referred to the necessity of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.  Khomaini&#039;s letter had a lasting and profound effect on the developement of Iran&#039;s nuclear program.   When does the west and the world want to come tosenses and understand the realo nature of mullahcracy</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree with Mohammad Sahimi who is constantly supporting and denying what the IRI is up to and agree with Jon Harrison.  Khomaini himslef when sipped the chalice said that &#8220;friendship with the U.S. is frienship of a sheep with a wolf&#8221;  and he went on to recommend to the elements of the regime who would take his place after his death and made sure that after his death Iran would continue work on it nuclear weapons program.  He was under no illusions that Iran had effectively conceded defeat to Iraq, and was determined that, in any future conflict, Iran would have all the necessary weapons to achieve victory.  On 16 July 1988, just four days before Khomaini announced that he had agreed to accept UN security Resolution 598, which called for an immediate ceasefire to end the war with Iraq, he wrote a letter to Iran&#8217;s military and political leaders.  The letter was a response to a &#8217;shocking report&#8217; he had received from Mohsen Rezai expressed utter despair at the course the was was taking.  Khomaini&#8217;s letter argued that Iran should do everything to acquire the military capability to ensure that it did not find itself in the same humiliating position the next time the country went to war.  &#8220;if we have  at hand the instruments which we will obtain over five years, it is possible for us to have the power to carry out destructive or reciprocal operations,&#8221; Khomaini wrote.  &#8220;If we have 350 infantry brigades, 2,500 tanks, 3,000 artillery units, 300 fighter jets, 300 helicopters and the ability to create noticeable quantities of laser and atomic weapons which are the requirements of war in this day and age, I can say that by God&#8217;s will we could carry out an offensive operation.&#8221;  This letter, the exact contents of which are published here for the first time, is the only known occasion when Khomaini personally referred to the necessity of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.  Khomaini&#8217;s letter had a lasting and profound effect on the developement of Iran&#8217;s nuclear program.   When does the west and the world want to come tosenses and understand the realo nature of mullahcracy</p>
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		<title>By: Renfro</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52653</link>
		<dc:creator>Renfro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:56:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52653</guid>
		<description>Jon Harrison Says:

&quot;Friendship with Iran, rather than Israel, is the key to advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East generally (where it would serve as a counterweight to U.S. dependence/reliance on Saudi Arabia), and specifically in the Persian Gulf (through which something like 25% of world oil flows). U.S. policy goals in Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are probably achievable only with a friendly Iran.&quot;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;

Ditto again.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jon Harrison Says:</p>
<p>&#8220;Friendship with Iran, rather than Israel, is the key to advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East generally (where it would serve as a counterweight to U.S. dependence/reliance on Saudi Arabia), and specifically in the Persian Gulf (through which something like 25% of world oil flows). U.S. policy goals in Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are probably achievable only with a friendly Iran.&#8221;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;</p>
<p>Ditto again.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Harrison</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52639</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Harrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52639</guid>
		<description>I disagree with Muhammad Sahimi on one point: to say there is no evidence that Iran is after a nuclear weapon is incorrect. It is known that Iran obtained nuclear expertise from Pakistan in the past. Further, it can be inferred from what is known about the Iranian program that a bomb is at least one of its goals. The Iranians are not going to come out and say so, for obvious reasons. But an objective examination of the situation leaves no real doubt that their program has a military component. 

Unlike some people, I do not find this particularly alarming. I am 100% in favor of doing everything possible to achieve a U.S.-Iran rapprochement. Friendship with Iran, rather than Israel, is the key to advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East generally (where it would serve as a counterweight to U.S. dependence/reliance on Saudi Arabia), and specifically in the Persian Gulf (through which something like 25% of world oil flows). U.S. policy goals in Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are probably achievable only with a friendly Iran.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree with Muhammad Sahimi on one point: to say there is no evidence that Iran is after a nuclear weapon is incorrect. It is known that Iran obtained nuclear expertise from Pakistan in the past. Further, it can be inferred from what is known about the Iranian program that a bomb is at least one of its goals. The Iranians are not going to come out and say so, for obvious reasons. But an objective examination of the situation leaves no real doubt that their program has a military component. </p>
<p>Unlike some people, I do not find this particularly alarming. I am 100% in favor of doing everything possible to achieve a U.S.-Iran rapprochement. Friendship with Iran, rather than Israel, is the key to advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East generally (where it would serve as a counterweight to U.S. dependence/reliance on Saudi Arabia), and specifically in the Persian Gulf (through which something like 25% of world oil flows). U.S. policy goals in Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are probably achievable only with a friendly Iran.</p>
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		<title>By: mattes</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52628</link>
		<dc:creator>mattes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:31:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52628</guid>
		<description>Has anyone predicted what would happen to the price of oil if Israel attacked Iran?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has anyone predicted what would happen to the price of oil if Israel attacked Iran?</p>
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		<title>By: Ira zad</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52605</link>
		<dc:creator>Ira zad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:15:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52605</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s about freaking time - Blockade the freaking mullahs and bring them down -- Ethnic unrest is already roiling in Iran - Iranian people despise this man-eating regime--

Sarkozy will be there to help too with his brand new bas in UAE :)

Let&#039;s Roll some mullah heads

And all you lefty lunatics with hair grown under your arm pits  can go defend the mullahs -- Oh no need to take your joints</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s about freaking time &#8211; Blockade the freaking mullahs and bring them down &#8212; Ethnic unrest is already roiling in Iran &#8211; Iranian people despise this man-eating regime&#8211;</p>
<p>Sarkozy will be there to help too with his brand new bas in UAE :)</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s Roll some mullah heads</p>
<p>And all you lefty lunatics with hair grown under your arm pits  can go defend the mullahs &#8212; Oh no need to take your joints</p>
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		<title>By: dh</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52603</link>
		<dc:creator>dh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:01:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52603</guid>
		<description>Don&#039;t forget the Pentagon. There must be people there who see through the transparent &#039;diplomatic&#039; efforts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t forget the Pentagon. There must be people there who see through the transparent &#8216;diplomatic&#8217; efforts.</p>
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		<title>By: Muhammad Sahimi</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52598</link>
		<dc:creator>Muhammad Sahimi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:16:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52598</guid>
		<description>While national pride does play an important role in Iran&#039;s pursuit of uranium enrichment technology, it is not the only reason. Jon Harrison also implies that Iran is actually after a nuclear weapon, for which there is no evidence, at least as of now.

Aside from the necessity of diversifying its energy resources, and including nuclear energy in the mix (which I explained in an article in Harward International Review, Winter 2005), Iran is after the Japan model, namely, having the complete domestic industry for producing low-enriched uranium for its nuclear reactors, but also putting it in a position that would enable it to break out on a short notice, if a national emergency arises. 

Who can blame Iran? Regardless of how we view its regime, Iran is in one of the worst neighborhoods in the world, with an unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan on the east (from which the Jundallah terrorists attack Iran), a constantly threatening nuclear-armed Israel on the West, and claims to its territorial integrity by the United Arab Emirate in the south which are supported by the U.S., not to mention a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan (and even in Pakistan).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While national pride does play an important role in Iran&#8217;s pursuit of uranium enrichment technology, it is not the only reason. Jon Harrison also implies that Iran is actually after a nuclear weapon, for which there is no evidence, at least as of now.</p>
<p>Aside from the necessity of diversifying its energy resources, and including nuclear energy in the mix (which I explained in an article in Harward International Review, Winter 2005), Iran is after the Japan model, namely, having the complete domestic industry for producing low-enriched uranium for its nuclear reactors, but also putting it in a position that would enable it to break out on a short notice, if a national emergency arises. </p>
<p>Who can blame Iran? Regardless of how we view its regime, Iran is in one of the worst neighborhoods in the world, with an unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan on the east (from which the Jundallah terrorists attack Iran), a constantly threatening nuclear-armed Israel on the West, and claims to its territorial integrity by the United Arab Emirate in the south which are supported by the U.S., not to mention a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan (and even in Pakistan).</p>
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		<title>By: scott</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52597</link>
		<dc:creator>scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 14:18:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52597</guid>
		<description>First, I want to point out that we are awash in oil right now.  This means that gasoline demand is down, reserves are at 98% of capacity, we have filled tankers sitting off-shore.  We are in another oil bubble.  The last time this drew to a contango mess was on the eve of the Israel/Lebanon war of &#039;06.  I believe we may have allowed Israel to go ahead with it&#039;s attack after saber rattling failed to reach the needed $77/barrel.  The war with Lebanese got the price to $75 which was less than what they wanted but forestalled a contango crisis.  

(Contango is when the spot price is far below the futures price, this means the investor overbid the oil price and will have to sell for far less than he bought it for.  Since so much of this is the low interest gov&#039;t loans that bailed out these manipulators we&#039;re paying for the gas manipulation 4-5 times over now.  One more bubble pop and our enfeebled economy could collapse--at least the financiers.)

This next contango bubble could see the same convergence of foreign policy at the service of market manipulation.  If this sounds a bit conspiratorial I&#039;d direct you to Smedley Butler&#039;s &quot;War Is a Racket,&quot; ask you to reflect on South America and the Middle East.  I don&#039;t see these as sole or even primary reasons for this action--hell, when is it a bad time to kill brown people?  We have many Machiavellian if myopic reasons to proceed with the status quo, but this market imbalance must be kept in perspective.

While Iran has been under crippling sanctions for some time, the oil glut has no doubt hurt Iran.  Sales at the well head are down, as are revenues.  And, much of this bubble goes to the financiers not to the producers.  After all, the producers are still having to subsidize the gas for domestic consumption.  

I also want to point out that Saudi Arabia already likely has nukes though this is not widely discussed.  It seems only sensible that Iran get them as well.  I don&#039;t know how much longer this country can continue to bully the world.  Are we China&#039;s unwitting terrier?  How much can we do for Israel, how much more militarism can we afford?

This country can&#039;t afford to run the deficits we&#039;re running.  We can&#039;t fight China as they could dump our dollars and cripple us instantly.  The Fed had to bail out the 10yr Treasury note when it found few buyers.  What I am trying to discern is how much of a bang and puff of smoke will we leave as the American empire succumbs to entropy and Hoyle and finds it&#039;s own reasonable limits.  

This will seem very painful here.  We will slowly slide a bit while the rest of the world gains and improves.  This is a good thing.  The best thing would be for us to hold only a Navy, patrol the seas for a tribute and develop our own manufacturing base.  We&#039;d benefit from fair trade and real competition.  But, these would help us over the long term.  

Over the short run our myopic ministers will support what&#039;s most advantageous right now.  Increasingly, the advantage is going to political supporters rather than the American people.  We are being fleeced.  I would like to see liberals engage libertarians and vice versa.  They agree on retiring the American empire, sadly we&#039;re represented by the lackeys of the War machine in both parties.  The longer we allow this, the further we will descend.  When the fight is over, it doesn&#039;t really serve one well to continue the bellicose overtures.  Our ugliness (and hypocrisy) is evident to all but ourselves.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, I want to point out that we are awash in oil right now.  This means that gasoline demand is down, reserves are at 98% of capacity, we have filled tankers sitting off-shore.  We are in another oil bubble.  The last time this drew to a contango mess was on the eve of the Israel/Lebanon war of &#8216;06.  I believe we may have allowed Israel to go ahead with it&#8217;s attack after saber rattling failed to reach the needed $77/barrel.  The war with Lebanese got the price to $75 which was less than what they wanted but forestalled a contango crisis.  </p>
<p>(Contango is when the spot price is far below the futures price, this means the investor overbid the oil price and will have to sell for far less than he bought it for.  Since so much of this is the low interest gov&#8217;t loans that bailed out these manipulators we&#8217;re paying for the gas manipulation 4-5 times over now.  One more bubble pop and our enfeebled economy could collapse&#8211;at least the financiers.)</p>
<p>This next contango bubble could see the same convergence of foreign policy at the service of market manipulation.  If this sounds a bit conspiratorial I&#8217;d direct you to Smedley Butler&#8217;s &#8220;War Is a Racket,&#8221; ask you to reflect on South America and the Middle East.  I don&#8217;t see these as sole or even primary reasons for this action&#8211;hell, when is it a bad time to kill brown people?  We have many Machiavellian if myopic reasons to proceed with the status quo, but this market imbalance must be kept in perspective.</p>
<p>While Iran has been under crippling sanctions for some time, the oil glut has no doubt hurt Iran.  Sales at the well head are down, as are revenues.  And, much of this bubble goes to the financiers not to the producers.  After all, the producers are still having to subsidize the gas for domestic consumption.  </p>
<p>I also want to point out that Saudi Arabia already likely has nukes though this is not widely discussed.  It seems only sensible that Iran get them as well.  I don&#8217;t know how much longer this country can continue to bully the world.  Are we China&#8217;s unwitting terrier?  How much can we do for Israel, how much more militarism can we afford?</p>
<p>This country can&#8217;t afford to run the deficits we&#8217;re running.  We can&#8217;t fight China as they could dump our dollars and cripple us instantly.  The Fed had to bail out the 10yr Treasury note when it found few buyers.  What I am trying to discern is how much of a bang and puff of smoke will we leave as the American empire succumbs to entropy and Hoyle and finds it&#8217;s own reasonable limits.  </p>
<p>This will seem very painful here.  We will slowly slide a bit while the rest of the world gains and improves.  This is a good thing.  The best thing would be for us to hold only a Navy, patrol the seas for a tribute and develop our own manufacturing base.  We&#8217;d benefit from fair trade and real competition.  But, these would help us over the long term.  </p>
<p>Over the short run our myopic ministers will support what&#8217;s most advantageous right now.  Increasingly, the advantage is going to political supporters rather than the American people.  We are being fleeced.  I would like to see liberals engage libertarians and vice versa.  They agree on retiring the American empire, sadly we&#8217;re represented by the lackeys of the War machine in both parties.  The longer we allow this, the further we will descend.  When the fight is over, it doesn&#8217;t really serve one well to continue the bellicose overtures.  Our ugliness (and hypocrisy) is evident to all but ourselves.</p>
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		<title>By: Mossad</title>
		<link>http://www.lobelog.com/shortcut-on-the-roadmap-to-war/comment-page-1/#comment-52596</link>
		<dc:creator>Mossad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 14:06:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=255#comment-52596</guid>
		<description>At this point it seems fairly clear that Obama is clueless with respect to foreign policy. At best he is ambivalent. Given that his entire foreign policy team is right of center, it seems doubtful that we will avoid more war, Admiral Mullen not withstanding. AIPAC&#039;s control of Congress remains as firm as ever, Obama fans the flames of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. His lawyers continue to successfully invoke the government&#039;s &quot;right&quot; to state secrets against hapless and unwitting prisoners of war (a.k.a. &quot;terrorists&quot;). Probably in the end, Obama will regret his decisions and/or lack of them with respect to foreign policy and his inability to stand up to Israel. But by then it will be too late. I too hope that I am wrong. But I doubt it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point it seems fairly clear that Obama is clueless with respect to foreign policy. At best he is ambivalent. Given that his entire foreign policy team is right of center, it seems doubtful that we will avoid more war, Admiral Mullen not withstanding. AIPAC&#8217;s control of Congress remains as firm as ever, Obama fans the flames of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. His lawyers continue to successfully invoke the government&#8217;s &#8220;right&#8221; to state secrets against hapless and unwitting prisoners of war (a.k.a. &#8220;terrorists&#8221;). Probably in the end, Obama will regret his decisions and/or lack of them with respect to foreign policy and his inability to stand up to Israel. But by then it will be too late. I too hope that I am wrong. But I doubt it.</p>
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