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Published on April 11th, 2012 | by Peter Jenkins

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Iran nuclear talks offer opportunity if the US wants it

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Joby Warrick and Greg Miller reported in the Washington Post on 8 April that White House officials are confident that Iran is not engaged in making nuclear weapons.

To those who follow closely the Iranian nuclear controversy this came as no surprise: it’s what the Director of National Intelligence has been saying since late 2007. What struck was that the administration is now spreading this good news. Only a few months ago it was leading the American public to believe that the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) had found proof of an Iranian nuclear weapons program (which it hadn’t).

The contrast is stark, and encouraging for those who think that war with Iran to destroy its uranium enrichment plants would be a disaster. It suggests the administration has understood that negotiating a deal based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is now the West’s wisest option, and that the upcoming talks in Istanbul offer an opportunity to launch a negotiation. An NPT deal would allow Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program unmolested, in return for its offering the best possible guarantees that all its nuclear material will remain in non-military use.

So for the first time in more than two years there can be hope that this ongoing conflict will have a peaceful outcome.

The timing looks good. Last month’s parliamentary elections have left Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stronger politically than at any time since 1989. His power is comparable to that of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in August 1980 when he authorised the opening of negotiations for the release of the US embassy hostages.

Even though the Iranians have shown no sign of buckling under the pressure of ever tighter sanctions and know that the West’s military option is deeply unattractive to any of sane mind, the West has good cards in its hand. Sanctions are hurting Iran and Iran has an interest in getting them lifted, provided the price is right.

It’s now become apparent that the closure of one of Iran’s two enrichment plants, the small underground facility at Fordo, will be a Western objective. If it’s a pre-condition for moving beyond initial talks into a negotiation, as suspension of all enrichment has sometimes been, the game will soon be over. If it’s left for discussion at a much later stage, Iran will jib at closure, but perhaps some alternative to closure can be found: a permanent on-site IAEA inspector presence, for instance.

The West will also be targeting Iran’s small stock of 20% enriched uranium, according to David Sanger and Steven Erlanger in the New York Times (8 April). This looks less likely to raise Iranian hackles than plant closures. But Iran will be looking for assurances of access to the stock to produce fuel plates for the US-supplied Tehran Research Reactor.

Capping future enriched uranium production at below 5% is also likely to be negotiable, provided Iran is allowed to feel confident that the West will meet any future needs for 20% fuel without fuss.

So if the parties can find some way of moving beyond opening positions into a search for ways of giving expression to common interests, a negotiated outcome looks feasible.

That said, the scope for a negotiation to founder on cultural misunderstandings, negative prejudices born of past clashes, political in-fighting, and the interests of the West’s Middle East “allies” cannot be discounted.

In 2007, a promising opening evaporated when Iran’s chief negotiator clashed with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was the President’s turn to be thwarted by domestic rivals in 2009. Then, in 2010, the timing of Iranian assent to a confidence-building proposal brokered by Turkey and Brazil cast doubt in Western minds about Iran’s sincerity.

The US negotiators must guard against a tendency to blind self-righteousness where international obligations are concerned. Although the US approach to international law has often been selective, Americans tend to treat non-Americans as miscreants when the latter err. It would be counterproductive to make Iran’s negotiators, who crave mutual respect and equality, feel like criminal suspects engaged in plea-bargaining.

However, the greatest threat to a successful outcome is likely to come from Middle East “allies”.

Since 1992, both leading Israeli parties have strived to convince Washington of Israel’s value to the US as an ally in a post-Cold War Middle East. For these Israelis, Iran’s nuclear programme has been manna from heaven—just what’s needed to persuade Americans that Iran is an evil state bent on destroying Israel, and that Iran’s programme, if left unchecked, will precipitate nuclear proliferation in an unstable region.

US neoconservatives, in thrall to dreams of reshaping the Middle East, have provided a ready echo chamber for these (highly questionable) propositions. These constituencies, Israeli and American, have no interest in the normalisation of the Iranian nuclear case through an NPT deal.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, though it appears to have refrained from poisoning the wells of American opinion, has been implying that it will ignore its NPT obligations if Iran is allowed to enjoy nuclear technology that the Saudis themselves are decades away from mastering. So any prospective deal that leaves Iran in possession of enrichment plants may well provoke Saudi protests.

Will President Obama be strong enough to resist pressure from these quarters? Has the administration understood that Iran’s nuclear programme is a symbol of a geostrategic shift–Iran is slowly returning to the ranks of Asia’s greater powers–and that wisdom lies in accommodating a shift that can only be prevented at the cost of hardship to much of mankind? Time will tell.

– Peter Jenkins was the UK’s Permanent Representative to the IAEA for 2001-06 and is now a partner in ADRg Ambassadors.

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About the Author

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Peter Jenkins was a British career diplomat for 33 years, following studies at the Universities of Cambridge and Harvard. He served in Vienna (twice), Washington, Paris, Brasilia and Geneva. He specialized in global economic and security issues. His last assignment (2001-06) was that of UK Ambassador to the IAEA and UN (Vienna). Since 2006 he has represented the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership, advised the Director of IIASA and set up a partnership, ADRgAmbassadors, with former diplomatic colleagues, to offer the corporate sector dispute resolution and solutions to cross-border problems. He was an associate fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy from 2010 to 2012. He writes and speaks on nuclear and trade policy issues.



9 Responses to Iran nuclear talks offer opportunity if the US wants it

  1. avatar Cyrus says:

    I think the Turkish/Brazilian deal debacle raised far more doubts about Washington’s sincerity than Irans, as both the Turks and the Brazilians complained quite loudly and publicly that the Obama administration had endorsed their deal in separate letters issued just weeks before the deal was announced, only to have the rug pulled out from under them once they got a “yes” from Iran.

  2. avatar Aslam says:

    What I do not understand is why is it that Iran with nukes a threat to Israel and to the world but Israel with nukes isn’t a threat but a defense from agression everybody can talk about other countries nukes but No to Israel nukes the best solution is Israel and Iran should subject their nuclear faclities to inspection if Iran cannot have muke Israel should not too can anybody justify otherwise to me

  3. avatar ghouri says:

    I think it,s time for america to be sensible and don,t talk for destruction and wars. Enough is enough they have already killed over two million Muslims in Irak and afghanistan what for?
    They have destroyed their economy and Europe is also fed up with american politics and public opinion is no more siupporting america.
    There must be end of lies and killings and is counter productive.Peace for all with fruits for the people. War causes only illegal killings.

  4. avatar vv says:

    Ther is somebody who do not want a deal and compermise between iran and US . the simple way is respect iran s right all will be solved

  5. avatar Donald Schulze says:

    YEAH, BUT IF THEY GET A BOMB, THEY MIGHT ACTUALLY Use it. Oh!
    ON A COUNTRY 1/10 Their size …
    Ah crap, it sucks being ‘US’.

  6. avatar Tony C says:

    It was JFK who stated: “We will never negotiate out of fear and we will never fear to negotiate”.
    It was Vito Corleone, ‘The Godfather’, who advised: “Your friends you keep close to you, your enemies you keep even closer to you”.

    But – that was before the US became Israel occuppied territory with our foreign affairs and policies directed by AIPAC and Israel.

    Israel has decided on war with Iran and the US will obey its masters and go to war against Iran.

    There is NO ‘sincere’ negotiation.

  7. I expect Iran will (understandably) want some progress on their ‘non-nuclear mid-east’ proposal, i.e getting rid of Israel’s nukes, and this could be a deal-breaker.

  8. avatar Nathan Vassante says:

    Well, well, well, here we are again: the P5+1 talks with Iran on a non-issue. It is a non-issue because the following are well known:
    1. Under NPT, Iran can legally enrich uranium up to 90% for peaceful purposes.
    2. According to IAEA inspectors Iran has not deviated from its NPT agreement.
    3. The 16 US intelligence services and Mossad have determined that Iran is not engaged in making any nuclear weapon.

    So, what are the entire west’s sanctions, threats of military actions, delusional demands, and finally these talks for? Are all the policy makers in the west psychos needing to be institutionalized? Or more likely, are they trying to divert Iran’s attention from its role as regional superpower, replacing the west’s decadent one?

    “…US/Israeli plan to escalate their campaign of sabotage inside Iran…”.

    If they can sabotage, why shouldn’t Iran do the same? According to the west, Hamas and Hezbollah are terrorist organizations supported by Iran. If that is true, why then these organizations do not start sabotaging Saudi and Qatari oil/gas production facilities for the sake of their benefactor, Iran? Such a move would bring the center of turmoil into those two countries and would quickly abort their meddling in the Syrian affairs, not to mention that it would evaporate the current oil sanctions on Iran.

  9. avatar Richard Steven Hack says:

    All these articles suggesting a deal might be “right around the corner”.

    A couple weeks from now, reality will set in as the talks collapse and go nowhere – which is precisely what the US, the EU and Israel wants.

    The goal is a military attack on Iran to weaken it enough so that it is no longer an effective actor in the region in opposition to the US and Israel intentions.

    And the intention is also to start another war – not that Afghanistan is winding down – so the military-industrial complex can continue to get several hundred billion dollars a year dumped into their accounting systems.

    Anyone who thinks the US is serious about diplomacy is delusional.

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