Comments for LobeLog.com http://www.lobelog.com Personality Blogs Fri, 3 Sep 2010 22:28:30 +0100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 Comment on The Daily Talking Points by Jon Harrison http://www.lobelog.com/the-daily-talking-points-23/comment-page-1/#comment-129116 Jon Harrison Fri, 03 Sep 2010 22:28:30 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3034#comment-129116 Saudi Arabia has nuclear weapons? Any way to confirm that? Saudi Arabia has nuclear weapons? Any way to confirm that?

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by Jon Harrison http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129115 Jon Harrison Fri, 03 Sep 2010 22:27:04 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129115 I love Montana's comment and agree with it 100%. As to "annihilating" the North Korean regime and armed forces, I made a point of saying we would never do it. But if we did, the Chinese would "hold their breath and make no comment" (or at least no comment beyond denouncing US "imperialism" -- and who cares what they have to say about that? I love Montana’s comment and agree with it 100%.

As to “annihilating” the North Korean regime and armed forces, I made a point of saying we would never do it. But if we did, the Chinese would “hold their breath and make no comment” (or at least no comment beyond denouncing US “imperialism” — and who cares what they have to say about that?

]]> Comment on Israeli Bombing of Iran is “Not a pretty picture to contemplate, but a likely scenario” by Jon Harrison http://www.lobelog.com/israeli-bombing-of-iran-is-not-a-pretty-picture-to-contemplate-but-a-likely-scenario/comment-page-1/#comment-129112 Jon Harrison Fri, 03 Sep 2010 22:18:08 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3056#comment-129112 Well, for some time I maintained that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program was likely, but my view has changed over the past few weeks. During the final two years of the Bush administration I was telling my conservative friends in particlular that there was zero chance of a US strike on Iran, because the situation in Iraq was so tenuous. (When it became less tenuous after the spring of 2008 I kept to the same view, because electoral politics precluded US action.) I was right. I also saw no chance of Israeli action during the same time period, and for the same reasons. (I am on the record as saying all this.) Beginning in 2009 I became increasingly concerned that Israel, frustrated by the Obama administration (and perhaps somewhat contemptuous of it as well) was planning to hit Natanz and perhaps other targets as well. My timeline looked to the year after the US midterm elections in 2010 as the period of greatest danger. However, in the past few weeks I've sensed a different mood in Tel Aviv. I can't necessarily point to specific words or actions, but I have the strong feeling that war is off the table, at least for the rest of Barack Obama's first term. The potential gains from an Israeli strike are limited, indeed problematical. The potential blowback is enormous. Moreover, I believe Washington (although it obviously can't admit this) has in effect interposed its veto on Israel over this issue. I would rate the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran over the next 24 months at 30-40% and declining. What may happen if a Republican gets elected in 2012 is another matter. But until then I believe we have a game of chicken going on. Three months ago I thought an Israeli attack likely. Today I'd bet money that no strikes on Iran (Israeli or US) will be conducted between now and the next US presidential election. Well, for some time I maintained that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program was likely, but my view has changed over the past few weeks. During the final two years of the Bush administration I was telling my conservative friends in particlular that there was zero chance of a US strike on Iran, because the situation in Iraq was so tenuous. (When it became less tenuous after the spring of 2008 I kept to the same view, because electoral politics precluded US action.) I was right. I also saw no chance of Israeli action during the same time period, and for the same reasons. (I am on the record as saying all this.)

Beginning in 2009 I became increasingly concerned that Israel, frustrated by the Obama administration (and perhaps somewhat contemptuous of it as well) was planning to hit Natanz and perhaps other targets as well. My timeline looked to the year after the US midterm elections in 2010 as the period of greatest danger. However, in the past few weeks I’ve sensed a different mood in Tel Aviv. I can’t necessarily point to specific words or actions, but I have the strong feeling that war is off the table, at least for the rest of Barack Obama’s first term. The potential gains from an Israeli strike are limited, indeed problematical. The potential blowback is enormous. Moreover, I believe Washington (although it obviously can’t admit this) has in effect interposed its veto on Israel over this issue.

I would rate the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran over the next 24 months at 30-40% and declining. What may happen if a Republican gets elected in 2012 is another matter. But until then I believe we have a game of chicken going on. Three months ago I thought an Israeli attack likely. Today I’d bet money that no strikes on Iran (Israeli or US) will be conducted between now and the next US presidential election.

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by Daniel Luban http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129088 Daniel Luban Fri, 03 Sep 2010 18:53:12 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129088 In response to Jim Roth's comment: I merely claimed that Iran has redoubled its nuclear program, not necessarily its nuclear WEAPONS program. Mr. Roth is correct that it has not been proven that Iran is seeking an actual warhead, as opposed to what is frequently (if imprecisely) referred to as "breakout capacity". (See Joshua Pollock of Arms Control Wonk for more on this terminology: http://pollack.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3053/some-straight-talk-about-iran). That said, it would hardly be surprising if Iran were to seek a nuclear weapon -- as I noted, the frequent American threats of regime change against Tehran give them a big incentive to acquire a nuclear deterrent. In response to Jim Roth’s comment: I merely claimed that Iran has redoubled its nuclear program, not necessarily its nuclear WEAPONS program. Mr. Roth is correct that it has not been proven that Iran is seeking an actual warhead, as opposed to what is frequently (if imprecisely) referred to as “breakout capacity”. (See Joshua Pollock of Arms Control Wonk for more on this terminology: http://pollack.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3053/some-straight-talk-about-iran). That said, it would hardly be surprising if Iran were to seek a nuclear weapon — as I noted, the frequent American threats of regime change against Tehran give them a big incentive to acquire a nuclear deterrent.

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by Jim Roth http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129082 Jim Roth Fri, 03 Sep 2010 18:21:43 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129082 You state that Iran has been driven to redouble it's efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon - but there is no evidence that Iran is making any such efforts. This tacit acceptance of false assumptions is a form of propaganda called "framing" and in this case is also a "frame-up". You state that Iran has been driven to redouble it’s efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon – but there is no evidence that Iran is making any such efforts.

This tacit acceptance of false assumptions is a form of propaganda called “framing” and in this case is also a “frame-up”.

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by Jim http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129050 Jim Fri, 03 Sep 2010 13:30:03 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129050 China and North Korea have a cozy enough relationship that we're never going to 'annihilate' them, or we'll face the same ourselves. China wouldn't even have to launch any missiles, just call in some of the paper they hold on us. And if bozos like the author thought Iraq would be a "cakewalk", imagine what a thrashing we would take from a healthy, robust nation like Iran. The only recourse we would have would be nuclear, at which point (hopefully) nations of the world would shun us as a pariah state (like they're starting to Israel). China and North Korea have a cozy enough relationship that we’re never going to ‘annihilate’ them, or we’ll face the same ourselves. China wouldn’t even have to launch any missiles, just call in some of the paper they hold on us. And if bozos like the author thought Iraq would be a “cakewalk”, imagine what a thrashing we would take from a healthy, robust nation like Iran. The only recourse we would have would be nuclear, at which point (hopefully) nations of the world would shun us as a pariah state (like they’re starting to Israel).

]]> Comment on Boehner Shares His (Hawkish) Views on Israel and Iran by scott http://www.lobelog.com/boehner-shares-his-hawkish-views-on-israel-and-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-129046 scott Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:51:42 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=2985#comment-129046 I hope that gave you a laugh. I hope that gave you a laugh.

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by bogi666 http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129027 bogi666 Fri, 03 Sep 2010 10:12:52 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129027 The Thought Police have become an intricate function of the USG INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. Borrowed from "1984" and the Cheap Trick song "The Dream Police" the Thought Police get inside of my head the Thought Police come to me in my bed.......the Thought Police, Thought Police". What's even more insulting is that the Fascist press concocts rational for the existence and necessity of the Thought Police with legal prosecutions and/or invasions based on what the Thought Police think that someone is thinking or may think about......! Refined NAZISM tempered by Stalinism that's what the USG is become. Good article The Thought Police have become an intricate function of the USG INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. Borrowed from “1984″ and the Cheap Trick song “The Dream Police” the Thought Police get inside of my head the Thought Police come to me in my bed…….the Thought Police, Thought Police”. What’s even more insulting is that the Fascist press concocts rational for the existence and necessity of the Thought Police with legal prosecutions and/or invasions based on what the Thought Police think that someone is thinking or may think about……! Refined NAZISM tempered by Stalinism that’s what the USG is become. Good article

]]> Comment on The Shaky Logic of Iraq Revisionism by Montana http://www.lobelog.com/the-shaky-logic-of-iraq-revisionism/comment-page-1/#comment-129001 Montana Fri, 03 Sep 2010 03:44:51 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=3047#comment-129001 Honestly, the surge was a battle for improving a War, not winning it. Our military did everything asked of them and more and frankly deserve better than be spread too thin for far too long without being adequately equipped. Thank God we are getting out, what a waste of our Youth and Treasury set on a bed of lies. According to “W” we already had a Mission Accomplished Ceremony, right? History will credit “W” for deregulation and for our current financial mess, isn’t that enough! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5QNWmj8tBY When you cherry pick the information to go to war, you go to war. Honestly, the surge was a battle for improving a War, not winning it. Our military did everything asked of them and more and frankly deserve better than be spread too thin for far too long without being adequately equipped. Thank God we are getting out, what a waste of our Youth and Treasury set on a bed of lies. According to “W” we already had a Mission Accomplished Ceremony, right? History will credit “W” for deregulation and for our current financial mess, isn’t that enough!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5QNWmj8tBY

When you cherry pick the information to go to war, you go to war.

]]> Comment on Boehner Shares His (Hawkish) Views on Israel and Iran by scott http://www.lobelog.com/boehner-shares-his-hawkish-views-on-israel-and-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-128985 scott Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:30:43 +0000 http://www.lobelog.com/?p=2985#comment-128985 I called Eli's argument asinine, not him, I have tremendous respect for Eli, even if his pic makes him look like a little Indo/Paki nerd. Ali has the best pic, he looks like a swarthy compatriot of Sinatra, while Daniel looks like an all American athletic type. Jim's pic reminds me of Red Green. (I don't know if you'll publish this, but I'll bet anything you'll pass it around.) I called Eli’s argument asinine, not him, I have tremendous respect for Eli, even if his pic makes him look like a little Indo/Paki nerd. Ali has the best pic, he looks like a swarthy compatriot of Sinatra, while Daniel looks like an all American athletic type. Jim’s pic reminds me of Red Green.

(I don’t know if you’ll publish this, but I’ll bet anything you’ll pass it around.)

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