By Daniel Luban
This Friday, the American Enterprise Institute will host an event addressing the question “Should Israel attack Iran?” The event includes, among others, Iran uberhawk Michael Rubin and infamous “torture lawyer” John Yoo, but the real star is likely to be John Bolton, the former U.N. ambassador whose right-of-Attila views left him an outcast even within the second Bush administration. (Bolton was eventually forced out when it became clear that he would be unable to win Senate confirmation for the U.N. post.)
If Bolton’s recent rhetoric is any indication, his AEI appearance may accomplish the formidable feat of making Michael Rubin sound like a dove. Discussing Iran during a Tuesday speech at the University of Chicago, Bolton appeared to call for nothing less than an Israeli nuclear first strike against the Islamic Republic. (The speech, sponsored by the University Young Republicans and Chicago Friends of Israel, was titled, apparently without a trace of irony, “Ensuring Peace.”)
“Negotiations have failed, and so too have sanctions,” Bolton said, echoing his previously-stated belief that sanctions will prove ineffectual in changing Tehran’s behavior. “So we’re at a very unhappy point — a very unhappy point — where unless Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program, Iran will have nuclear weapons in the very near future.”
Bolton made clear that the latter option is unacceptable. “There are some people in the administration who think that it’s not really a problem, we can contain and deter Iran, as we did the Soviet Union during the Cold War. I think this is a great, great mistake and a dangerously weak approach…Whatever else you want to say about them, at least the Soviets believed that they only went around once in this world, and they weren’t real eager to give that up — as compared to a theological regime in Tehran which yearns for life in the hereafter more than life on earth…I don’t think [deterrence] works that way with a country like Iran.”
While Bolton coyly refused to spell out his conclusion, the implications of his argument were clear. If neither negotiations, nor sanctions, nor deterrence are options, then by his logic the only remaining option is for “Israel…to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program.”
Of course, it is nothing new for Bolton and his neoconservative allies to threaten an Israeli strike against Iran. But Bolton’s use of the “n-word” is, I believe, new for him, and marks a significant rhetorical escalation from the hawks. An Israeli strike, nuclear or otherwise, without U.S. permission remains unlikely. But as it often the case, I suspect that Bolton’s intention is less to give an accurate description of reality than it is to stake out positions extreme enough to shift the boundaries of debate as a whole to the right.
[Cross-posted at The Faster Times.]
Well, Iran is certainly not going to negotiate its nuclear program away. The politicians and people are tremendously proud of their achievements. The Mullah’s realize if they cave in on these sovereign rights it will be the slippery slope and soon Iran will need permission to take internal flights etc. just like in Iraq. So since negotiations are likely to fail, that logically leaves two choices-war or acceptance. With Obama in the White House acceptance by the US seems to be the obvious choice. So it is almost entirely up to Israel to go down the war route. Bolton and his neo-con crazies aren’t setting the agenda anymore, but unless Obama specifically warns Israel against a strike and is prepared to order the US Air Force to attack Israeli warplanes passing through Iraq, then I fear the US will be dragged into yet another Middle East war.
Well, I’m not absolutely certain Iran is determined to get the bomb, come what may. But it does seem likely. I’m waiting to see what the follow up is to the Iranians recent statement that they would ship most of their enriched material to Russia and France. Was that just a smokescreen?
I can see Obama warning Israel against a strike, and possibly doing something to prevent one, but he certainly isn’t going to order the Air Force to attack Israeli warplanes overflying Iraq. Would the Air Force obey such an order, if it came? An interesting question . . . .
While I agree with VietnamWarVeteran that JFK’s death marked a major turning point in American history, and while I’m 100% certain that his death was the result of a conspiracy, I am also 99.99% sure that the Mossad did not participate. Whether people in the Mossad knew it was coming, I couldn’t say for sure, but I doubt it. There is some evidence that knowledge of a plot was fairly widespread in the intelligence world — CIA, FBI, and possibly KGB elements were aware of it. Our people did nothing because the elimination of JFK was in their interest (as they saw it). The theory that the Mossad eliminated Kennedy because he was opposed to/was going to reveal Israel’s nuclear program has never had any supporting evidence, and appears to be purely a byproduct of anti-semitism.
Where does the Bolton quote regarding the use of nuclear weapons come from? (Especially the part in boldface.) It is not in the WSJ story cited.